(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 03 2007 09:57 AM
Re: Vortex

The last visible suggests that an eyewall replacement is under way. Or, perhaps it has peaked...lets hope so.
I remain interested in the patterns surrounding the system...the large upper trough that has preceded it has retrograded into the western GOM. However that may be as far as it goes as a robust high seems to be building northward from Mexico into Texas. The ULL over the Florida straits has not moved west with Felix as the one associated with Dean did. It has flattened into a SW-NE trough or so it appears. The pattern suggests a weakness near the coast line of expected land fall, and northward. I do expect the system to miss the northern Hounduran coast line on a direct hit and see land fall closer to Belize City. I am greatful the models seem so confident to that general point. But I think beyond that some questions remain.

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