typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 06 2007 12:46 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas

Quote:

From the TWD issued at 8:05 PM

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 320 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N70W...ANALYZED 1008 MB...HAS
GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE. ... HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FWIW, several of the models are developing something out of this, but no mention of that in the discussion.

Bill




They won't do that, pretty much ever. There is no purely tropical model beyond statistical based guidance..which does purely tropical physics. Everything is either baroclinic [meaning, based on horizontal differentiable medium] or limited-scaled baroclinic at best, and that means that inherently, they are prone to inaccuracies, particularly during the genesis phase.

No one want's to "officiate" a statement based on inherently erroneous tools. So it is understandable policy that they mention model coverage only after a system is already trackable. The reason why is because storm genesis outside the tropics is physcically different, in that it is based on fluid mechanics combined with temperature and dp gradients across that fluid medium. In the tropics, however, the quadrants are even -- typically -- and the only engine is the thermodynamics in the vertical, such that a coupled oceanic heat content with the lower atmosphere provides an abundance of convective available potential energy to rising parsels.

When you have a cyclonic curvature at upper levels of that which is observable this night impacting the area, this creates a medium conducive to extra-tropical cyclogensis. I have not been stellar in my own anticipations of this system evolution thus far.. I did not foresee this trough establishing its self with this strength. The overal picture has changed toward one which will take a long time if ever, to become tropical entity.



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