99L is looking a lot better today, and I think that recon
may find a tropical depression. This is based on the system
being nonfrontal as the front has dissapated, so we should
see a warmer core. This system may threaten north carolina.

A greater concern for Florida and the Gulf of Mexico
might be the area of convection currently off florida's west
coast and in the eastern gulf of mexico. This area is associated
with a vigorous tropical wave that is migrating across
the gulf. I am not familiar with the current shear profiles
over the southern gulf, but I would expect perhaps
a niche to form between a sheared trough to the north and
shear to the west. Now if shear does lessen, I would expect
the potential for rapid development and intensification.
Convection is already concentrated and the system
looks fairly organized. Though a tropical wave, it bears
very close watching by all interests in Florida and along the
Gulf Coast.

If shear lessens a tropical storm is possible

What opinions do others have regarding the status of the gulf of
mexico tropical wave?.