Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 09 2007 06:56 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas

Where's Gabrielle? Seems like everyone is having trouble with it tonight.

The 11pm NHC discussion mentioned that the low level center appeared to be displaced from a mid-level center that spun-up in the convective flare-up earlier this evening. The latest recon fix confirmed this. Satellite isn't a good tool to be using for finding a center at night given these considerations; you simply cannot see the low-levels. Even the available radars -- Wilmington and Morehead City, NC -- are looking at 11000ft+ and 6000ft+, respectively. Despite that, they do show the remnant midlevel circulation to the WSW/SW of the actual low-level center, just now coming into view on Morehead City radar and as fixed by recon lately.

As for QuikSCAT -- that pass is a few hours old and the high-res pass and ambiguities both suggest the center is in the NE area of that broader circulation, which would be consistent back to around 7p ET when the pass captured the storm.

Is it possible that the low level center can or will reform underneath that convective flareup? Perhaps. But, it has not yet done so and the convective flareup -- and associated mid-level center -- appear to be weakening from latest radar trends. Overall, focus on the recon fixes and what radar tell you before anything from satellite, especially given the eclipse period of the satellite during this time of the evening.

Hope this helps clear the confusion on Gabrielle.

NOTE on 90L: please take all 90L discussion to the Storm Forum and Forecast Lounge for now. Let's keep things on topic for our landfalling storm in this thread; 90L is currently broad, disorganized, and there's not a lot to suggest development from it in the next day or two. If you'd like to discuss it as a future threat, please check out the thread in the Forecast Lounge. Once Gabrielle moves out or development looks more likely from 90L (currently it is fairly low on the development scale), we'll open things up a bit more. Thanks for your cooperation.



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