| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 10 2007 01:16 AM |
Re: suspcious but slow
|
Quote:
92L has some unpleasant early guidance taking it to the east coast of florida, and that sort of track would likely verify with ridging to the north strengthening. it isn't overtly developing as of yet, but has shown a good lengthy convective burst and some tendency to develop outflow aloft--the synoptic pattern will favor it if it starts to develop, so it's worthy of concern, if not immediately threatening.
odd first-half count on the season. five tropcial storms and two category five hurricanes. beam me up, mr scott.
HF 2110z09september
I am a bit mystified at 92L this evening... Amazing deterioration has taken place since 3pm; yet despite the now complete absence of convection (there is 0!) there remains a fairly tight vortex signature by satellite alone. This may be a mid-level circulation, however, one that did not get a chance to come down to the surface because the convection spontaneously and rather inexplicably evaporated.
There may be some dry air contamination but the water vapor imagery shows that the column colocated with 92L is actually moist; so it is not really clear whether this is even ingesting outside the moist domain of the interior.
SAL is not a factor at this time, either.
The streamline analysis at 850mb level suggests some modest convergence, while the streamline analysis at 200mb level shows a strong divergence:
850: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QUNA00.jpg
200: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg
...These two factors should be generally favorable when in tandem. (convergence/divergence couplet in the 850mb and 200mb levels respectively is an initially favorable atmospheric circulation pattern for TC genesis)
Oceanic heat content is sufficiently present.
Not sure why this thing suddenly stopped convection