gabrielle is departing, maybe strengthening slightly.. but what little worry it had to offer has come and gone.
90L has some definite turning with it. it has had weak/broad cyclonic motion for days, but now seems to have focused it a bit more east/southeast of brownsville. what is out there is moving slowly westward... if anything develops it would be caught sort of in weak steering and it's hard to say where exactly a system would go. early on a northeastward motion would make sense with the shortwave passing by presently, but afterwards a quick pulse of ridging could easily block it, and keep it offshore. i get the idea that it's starting to develop based on presentation.
91L will probably beat the others to be the next system. most of the early guidance takes it generally westward... the gfdl and hwrf move it nw. the dynamic models are probably right until the thing develops.. then it's usually something in-between. that huge wheelhouse ridge from last month doesn't seem to be together anymore, so i doubt it's another straight-west type system in the works.
92L has the smallest chances. the convection popped back up today, south of yesterday's fierce burst. synoptic conditions aren't wrong for something to develop there, but there isn't much of a place to start in terms of a surface feature. the bursts may amount to nothing or they may help get something started. it looks like this disturbance will be in a favorable location, with regional scale pressure falls, later in the week as it nears florida. assuming it hasn't done anything prior to this, there may be some superior conditons for something to get started. the way things are going that is pure speculation at this point.
probably will have something classifyable by late tomorrow, almost surely something on wednesday. this time of year it's unusual for things to remain quiet for very long... by the time we're finally rid of gabrielle something should be there to take it's place.
HF 2348z10september