cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 11 2007 02:56 PM
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics

Interesting developments today

90L is back up on the Floaters, and local area NWSFDs are now tending to incorporate mention of a real possibility that this low begins deepening along the Texas coast over the course of the next 3 days or so. The "cold" front is about to stall or wash out, might re-fire a bit, but unlikely. Winds right along the Texas coast area already generally out of the north, cutting off all the fuel supply to keep the front from stalling and/or washing out - possibly - to meld with the coastal low during the week. Models are nibbling at this solution, in general, with the GFS & NAM doing a bit of a flip-flop dance, a few others taking a few bites, as well. Vivian over at TWC expressing their viewpoint, suggesting the possibility of TD development, as well.

A Tropical Depression in North Carolina would be welcome news, but in Texas, this is more rain that the state no longer "needs."

91L firing some deeper convective bursts around an apparent tightening LLC today. Think all agree that this is the one that has the best long-term odds of the 90-91-92 trio. Like real estate, but in addition to "Location" it's got "Time" "Time" Time."



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