that danged 90L did nothing but persist for the better part of four days before developing. now it's coming up fast--pressure has fallen around 10mb since last night, and it still has a few hours before coming in. should landfall in galveston county tx, somewhere on the bolivar peninsula, barring any early northeastward turn. the inner core is fairly small.. should wobble a good bit as it comes in with not-so-forceful steering and an increasingly asymmetric windfield.. might actually jerk back left closer to the houston metro area due to this.
coastal effects, aside from substantial rainfall, shouldn't be the big story with this little guy. the south central part of the u.s was inundated most of the summer with above normal rainfall. humberto isn't going into one of the worst possible places, but it isn't going into a particularly good one either. lousiana and missisippi look to pile on some decent rainfall from this one.
dependent on how vertically stacked the weakening system stays inland, the building ridge of high pressure might actually push whatever is left back offshore. i don't expect the weather pattern would be particularly friendly for redevelopment were this to happen, but that sort of thing is worth paying attention to. whatever does track back offshore after the oncoming shortwave shears most of the system away would likely turn westward this weekend, if it remains.
91L became td8, and i wonder why the nhc chose this numbering scheme. both systems developed simulataneously, and i would have bet that what is now humberto would become a storm first. why the nhc set it up so that 9 became humberto and 8 will become ingrid beats me.
td8 is probably ingrid already. nhc's philosophy on keeping it a depression at 5 baffles me. it is obviously getting easterly shear, and the cloud pattern is running at 2.5, which usually makes it a tropical storm. my logic would go that sheared systems are usually stronger than dvorak estimates, so it is more likely a tropical storm than not.. but nhc sees uncertainty in the location of its center. yeah, i do see that the vortex is elongated on visibles, so that line of logic might figure. still strikes me as odd that they waited as long to classify it, and are waiting to upgrade it still.
anyhow, ridiculous arguments aside... td8/future ingrid will probably be one of those systems that menaces the east coast, if it doesn't find some way to kill itself. ridging is forecast to stay more or less locked in the western atlantic through next week, which would act to accelerate the system westward past the five day window. the big caveats will be whatever is behind ingrid, and whatever that upper trough forecast to start gnawing at the storm over the weekend will do. we had what was gabrielle poised to swing back on the east coast under strong ridging, but an upper low swooped onto it and squashed it long enough that it never had time to organize as it started its run. by this weekend we'll have a better idea whether ingrid is something that will be a threat near the end of next week.
wave back near 35-40w has decent definition and spotty convection... will play into ingrid's future if it goes up. wave passing the cv islands is further south and well-defined, and may also be a player.
one last thing is the pattern-induced pressure falls near the bahamas late this week. i'd watch there, even though it seems like nothing of consequence should be there.
blah, that was a pile. i'll leave it to y'all to decide what kind of pile it is.
HF 2233z12september