A bit of the battle of environmental conditions vs. duration over warm ocean, tonight.

Humberto is taking in some dry, inland, stabilizing air from its northwest quadrant tonight. Houston, while in the sphere of circulation, is virtually completely free of rain or wind, as a result.

On the other hand, Humberto has clearly had a decent ramp up throughout the morning and afternoon, and I would almost bet more than a wooden nickel that he is pulling more to the right already than guidance would suggest should be happening. If verified, this could indicate a greater length of time over warm water, a further separation between Humberto's coc and land, and perhaps a better chance to get away from the dry air so easily getting entrained tonight. If verified, this would also mean that Humberto could be out over waters long enough to allow for some nocturnal enhancement.

Because of this I would not yet write off any chances for further strengthening leading up to landfall, but just as quickly also suggest that it is probably equally possible Humberto has already peaked out, and is now doing too much battle with the dry air he has ingested, and is still being pinched a bit by.

TWC has Mike Seidel reporting live down in Crystal Beach (just NE of Galveston). Sounds like they've already run into a good bit of freshwater flooding, and have had to change their broadcast location.