Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 13 2007 06:09 AM
Re: Humberto Landfall

For the record, there was at least one more recon after the last one posted. It's now a couple hours old, but still relevant given that it has 986mb. It looks like this central pressure was based on a 989mb dropsonde with 17kt winds, so they lowered it 3mb because they didn't hit the center.

5am NHC report also says: "WIND OF 98 KT WAS REPORTED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...OR AROUND 75 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 986 MB."

This means that the pressure fell another 3mb AFTER it crossed the coast, and the wind speeds jumped another 10kts!

I went to bed and this was a TS with 998mb pressure and I wake up with a hurricane over land.

I suspect this is going to be one storm that will be heavily analyzed given that it was within land based radar for almost it's entire development. This means they have a rare case where they have near complete lifetime radar imagery they can reference to see how it developed.

----
3 hours old:

971
URNT12 KNHC 130705
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092007
A. 13/06:52:00Z
B. 29 deg 32 min N
094 deg 21 min W
C. 850 mb 1308 m
D. 68 kt
E. 214 deg 4 nm
F. 290 deg 065 kt
G. 208 deg 004 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 17 C/ 1525 m
J. 27 C/ 1499 m
K. 0 C/ NA
L. OPEN WSW
M. C17
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / NA nm
P. AF306 0309A HUMBERTO OB 15
MAX FL WIND 78 KT E QUAD 06:02:20 Z
RAGGED EYEWALL
MET ACCURACY 1NM