dem05
(User)
Fri Sep 14 2007 02:16 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands

Strange as it may sound to other weather watchers...my guard continues to be down on TD8 when compared to the remanants of Humberto. When it comes to a focus on the tropics, my attention is still there very much.

Models indicate an eventual turn to the east, southeast, then south back into the Gulf....As referenced in the 5PM NHC Discussion, the models as seen on SFWMD website show the same.
...However, they dismiss possible redevelopment.

There were only a few opportunities for an NHC Forecast Discussions during the life of Humberto, but they ranged from a decoupled storm after landfall (with uppers moving on and a lower left behind) to a a low pressure system moving ESE over Mississippi. Looks like the uppers are departing and the lowers are doing it's thing.

Anyhow, we have a big buckle over the GOMEX in the tradewinds now thanks to the "H" factor. Very noticable in this evenings SHortwave that the low level flow across the entire Gulf is out of the SW instead of out of the ESE. Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

That is very unique and very representative of the impact that Humberto is imparting across the Gulf. For such a small system, the overall envelope grew quite extensive quickly and I am glad for the folks impacted that it made landfall sooner, not later. Even though a hurricane is a hurricane and that is never good. In fact, the banding like features have spread as far east as the Florida Penninsula.

Anyhow, back to the point. I'd imagine a High Presure Ridge would be the actual influence of that afformentioned SE to South motion of the low level remenants in a few days...That should tighten up a pressure gradient to some extent to the north of Humberto's lowpressure center. Likewise, if SW winds remain over the GOMEX for a few days...Between these two factors, it really won't be hard to get the surface energy of Humberto Spinning again off the coast of Mississippi, Alabama or the Florida Panhandle.

If there is appropriate upper level support, and Humberto's lower elements make it to the Gulf again...I would suspect that it is tennacious enough for rebirth in the Gulf late this weekend into Monday. Especially considering that the models show the opportunity of a Gulf reimergance. That might end up being a wierd and strange tale of Humberto Part II in the Gulf (especially strange along the western Gulf), kinda like Dennis in 1999 in the Carolina's and Ivan in the Gulf in 2004.



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