hmm.. a few thunderstorms blew up east of the bahamas. that's all it is right now. if it keeps persisting, though... could cause some trouble. that's a synoptically favored place. really everything from that region southward to panama will be looking good for trouble to start over the next few days (upper trough has to clear the middle of the caribbean for further south, though). keep looking for something over in this general area... or somethings.
most of the models have a big enough weakness punched in the ridge where ingrid's decaying swirl is headed that almost none push it westward, now. this time of year a system getting into that general area can 'go kyle' on ya.. the weak, little movement shown for whatever makes it past the shear, if anything, could be the start of one of those events.
wave behind ingrid is fairly well organized, and has a fairly good bulge on the itcz. the northeastern portion of this thing is already getting some shear, but the part to the south is scraping along under it. possible spot to watch for slow development.
HF 1456z15september