there isn't much on the map right now, but this could be a blockbuster week for the tropics.
ingrid continues to plod westward in the face of shear. it's redeveloped a good bit of convection today and watches/warnings for the islands, for at least a minimal tropical storm, are probably short in coming. the convection also makes the long-anticipated bend back to the northwest a more immediate likelihood, though according to the models this should have happened more than a day ago. looking at the newer model runs has me progressively more concerned about the long-term action ingrid will take. that upper weakness to its north, long-anticipated as the catch mechanism that will keep ingrid held until a late-week upper trough can grab it, is not living up to its part of the bargain. if ingrid makes it through, strong ridging in the western atlantic will get the storm instead. i don't need to tell you what would happen next. better hope ingrid gets stuck and fumbles around north of puerto rico next week.
that long-advertised region near the bahamas i was mumbling about last week hasn't borne anything as of yet. a quick glance at the region this morning shows nothing of concern, but the general area is still going to hold as a storm-friendly environment for the first half of this week. several of the models still have an inverted trough hanging there much of the week. development would not be a surprise, and it would likely try to cross florida. the caribbean thing has nothing in the way of a closed circulation, and is still just a central caribbean wave (looking better) and a festering zone north of panama. these two features will meet shortly, and the models are still trying to develop something here. nhc has a recon tentatively tasked for this area, so they aren't expecting nothing. the models are here and there on it, but generally see something, run it up into the gulf.
central tropical atlantic has a big area of disturbed weather that seems to be a dogpile of tropical waves more than anything else. several areas of turning over several hundred miles, and they all seem to be playing hot potato with convection. the big/disorganized profile of this thing is really only having one result.. it isn't developing, yet. just moving west. in the open atlantic subtropics there are more upper lows with attendant disturbed weather. those things develop sometimes this year. models have been suggesting one or another might, but there isn't one that a majority are trying to sell.
recap. it's mid-september, a great time of year to be paranoid about a great many places. we've got a tropical depression that looks like it will last a while longer, and may try to buck the system and get west under the ridge, or just give in to the pressure of what most every model says it should do. maybe another system or two in the works. most of these possibles look like threat systems. might be a couple of days, but this week looks to get going, maybe in a big way.
HF 1617z16september