Yeah Ingrids chances are very low... my main area is what you stated in the carribean. The area over florida isnt in the LLs just in the mid. With bad upper level enviroment throughout the SW Atlantic and into the Carribean...conditions dont favor really anything until the central gulf in a few days. Chances I give Ingrid is 20% The midlevel circulation will move SE and develop a small low near the FL straits and move W. Cold Air aloft should warm and we will get a midlevel ridge over the SE ahead of a trough over the upper plains. This should let the system get alot better organized as it moves west thru the gulf. I give that a 60%. Im still glancing at energy staying in the carribean with lower pressures but will shear from the above system hamper development or not is 1 of a few questions... 30% chance on this.