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Roughly 26N 75W I can see the Invest attempting to reconfigure around that area tonight. Already tonight, there are hints that this indeed happening, while what was being tracked as 93Ls LLC earlier could easily, as Dem mentions, end up a transient vortice that spins itself out as it pushes inland. And really, I can't seem to buy a westerly surface wind in the vicinity of that early LLC, any longer. 93L is not a purely tropical system. I would suggest that waiting to experience or witness tell-tale signs of tropical cyclogenesis is fool's bait just yet. For now, we should probably think along the lines of Barry, or Gabrielle, or 96L, for recent analogous features which did, or maybe did, develop into an upgradeable system. In each of those cases, it was likely equally, if not even more appropriate, to apply the Hebert-Poteat technique when attempting to ascertain the Invest's legitimacy, and intensity. Getting subtropical development so close to Florida during the peak of the season is most likely a little unusual, but given how often fronts have dropped south this season, shouldn't really be that surprising. This probably won't last for long, however. Water temps are just too warm and the air on 93s south and east far too juicy for whatever develops to be more subtropical, than tropical, I would bet. Will need to wash out the dry on its north and west. This might further limit development, initially, and keep some lid on the completeness of tropical transition. But, this becomes less likely the farther east 93 may end up forming/reforming. |