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The vortex actually is already inland, and has been so far an hour or two, based upon Melbourne radar. If it's going to dissipate, it needs to do so in a hurry - looks like it is approaching Orlando very soon, and that's 20% of the way into the Gulf, I estimate (maybe only 15%). Having said that, the scenario of the ULL transitioning to a subtropical cyclone does seem more realistic. I give it 55% chance currently. |