cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 20 2007 02:40 AM
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.

Eh. This might be some matter of semantics in the end.. but for the sake of continuity, 93L officially is and has been the LLC off the east coast that tracked inland this evening. For reference, NRL currently centers 93L as:
93LINVEST.25kts-1007mb-285N-809W

and SSD is tracking 93L at:
20/ 15 UTC 28.4N 80.7W TOO WEAK 93L

and NHC is tracking 93L as:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1030 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.

For all of the internet chatter about 93L being what is in all actually still just the center of the parent ULL with some convection and a mild surface reflection, the main player tonight has just moved inland and is crossing north Florida.

All sorts of data back up a "landfall" of a 1005 mb surface low near Merritt Island. This coc has, if anything, tightened into landfall. Additionally, winds are ramping up into the night from the sun going down, as there is no longer a great deal of mixing going on. Also, the heavier rains are really coming in now, especially on the north side of the surface low (93L).

The real questions here are - does this low remain the dominant player - if so, it may never have enough time over water to really develop a whole lot, if it continues WNW or NW, and roughly into the panhandle. Or, as others have suggested, does it get ingested into the subtle restructuring going on under the ULL. Or, does it weaken, and allow the faint surface reflection under the ULL to take hold.

Lots of questions, and no real answers, just yet.



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