I still just dont see this storm being a tropical storm.....subtropical...probably...but the upper low that will die out with still have some lingering affects in the mid-levels...GFS 300mb maps continue to show no ridging over the area. A strong anti-cyclone in the upper levels will dominate over the eastern 1/3 of the country and off the east coast...taking anything wnw towards the Panhandle-LA. Current data and models are showing a subtropical system between 1006-1009mb coming onshore in that region....due to the warm ocean content of 84-86dg...I would think it might drop as low as 1003mb before landfall and winds 45-50mph.. but still not having that right mid-upperlevel conditions will hamper this from becoming a strong TS or weak hurricane.
On a side note for true tropical activity my area of concern that I mentioned a few days back in the western carribean is coming on. Pressures are around 1010mb just east of Nicaragua... GFS is picking up on the small low and making this a TS in the central gulf and following 93L above. This will be more tropical as the mid-upperlevels will be somewhat conducive....but once it enters the gulf...some shear from our subtropical storm over LA might hamper this some also. Still this system has the best chance of becoming a true tropical system over the next 2-3days.
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