I think that the re-issuance of the TCFA (generally being good for 12-24 hours at a time) that was originally hoisted yesterday morning, now makes sense. Yesterday's simply struck me as far too early a call with all the variables up in the air, and especially considering how grudgingly slow ULLs transition into subtropical or tropical cyclones... not to mention how rarely this ever happens, in the first place.

So, today we have a broad surface low, with circulation becoming more and more evident in the area buoy, ship, c-man obs., some mild convection, a few lightning strikes, in the general area of the TCFA. The disturbance is likely going to continue to have a slow go at it while the ULL sits on top of it like this, however. And we're probably not talking about especially cold temps in the mid to upper levels, and as such, thunderstorm development is taking its sweet, sweet time. I mean, we're talking a broad area of surface low pressure with rain showers here.

The recon data will probably be unusually critical in determining if NHC bumps this feature up later today or tonight, otherwise my guess is we will all wait to see what this does through another overnight cycle.. maybe convection actually starts to genuinely deepen. Talking about deepening, pressures have stopped falling, and are even levelling out or rising a bit this afternoon.

The more I look at things this afternoon, the more tempted I am to conclude that a subtropical depression will be declared, or could be declared, already. Will still take a while to become tropical from here, if it does.

Edit to add that pressures have resumed falling now (soon after I posted based on earlier data, of course lol)