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The 5:30 TWO is crystal clear on this: 530 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN A FEW SQUALLS BUT THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. Looks like a very reasonable statement. Really, they probably could have gone either way this afternoon - start tracking 93 as an STD, or not. While it already loosely fits the definition of a subtropical depression, it would be a generous upgrade, for now. Very glad to see that they mentioned the low centered near 33N 47W, as well. Another one currently attempting to acquire subtropical and/or tropical characteristics. Finally, as many of us have been mentioning, the southern and/or western Caribbean is firing back up a bit, and is starting to have some occasional model support for development. |