Likely just a short matter of time before 10L is designated Jerry. Latest recon obs are finding surface winds out of the SSE,S, SSW already running up to 40knots. With convection continuing to fill in, and a reasonable warm core starting to show up in the data, we could see this transition close -enough to fully tropical later today to be labeled TS rather than STS.

IMHO, should this more complete tropical transition unfold within enough time before moving inland, it significantly raises the odds that, given enough time, 10L may strengthen further, with a not outlandish possibility of 10L becoming a hurricane - given enough time.

Tell ya what concerns me a little at the moment - a potential track generally westward, or wwnw, basically just offshore, in entirety, or for the most part. While there is not a lot of model support for this, there is a little, and that track is model-backed to some degree just by the model runs which take it inland, and then wnw. Should 10L not head inland, or well-enough inland, and then continue on a wwnw or w march, things could get ugly downstream. Should be watched. There have already been some big upside surprises this month.