cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 25 2007 03:13 PM
Re: Bahamas

Regarding the clouds and showers down around the Straits of Fl... it does look like there might be something setting up in the mid levels, but surface pressures are running average to a tad high, and if anything, have been on a slow increasing trend. If anything was to take at the surface here it would almost certainly be a slower process. A couple of the hotter model runs want to cook something up out of it, but then again they're running hot, and so show a lot of cooking all over the place. Still wouldn't be surprised to see it Invest tagged should the convection persist and something of a surface reflection actually get going. It's mighty close to home.


NHC just got a vortex out of 94L. Might just -barely- qualify as a TD, but this low is still battling a good bit of dry, stable air from its west, a weak, yet competing mid-level low to its north, and shear. Almost impossible to make a case for any kind of real strengthening in the near term, regardless.



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