Am trying to figure out if things are getting busy or quiet.

Just when sub tropical systems seems dead, then suddenly back, then gone. Gulf roation, wait....convection, nope - looks like shear. Yep, strong shear but wait, a depression..... or more, or less. Waves dieing, then flaring back up, then gone, then back again. Karen getting sheared, all models point poleward and a lock to be a fish spinner, but then again...... ; and wait a minute, is'nt that the remnants of Dean retrograding eastward from Central America??? No doubt why I feel like I really need a cigarette, and I don't even smoke!

Well, scitzofrennic season ( musta spelled THAT one wrong LOL ) that it is, am attempting to maintain some focus on Karen. I still see a very large envelope system ahead of a significant easterly surge, barreling westward. I know what the models say, and I will not deny that a deepening mid Atlantic trough would have to deteriorate the overall low to mid level ridge in place, but until I see Karen up around 14N, will continue to believe she'll gain more longitude than currrent models forecast . Other brief observation is that the 0Z GFS run, at about 144 hour and out, is starting to show me a decent U.S. eastern seabord mid level ridge. Now, I am not going to "guestimate" the 500mb heights that far out, but certainly a farther west tracking Karen would certainly pose a different picture given that dynamic. If her forward motion were to slow down, I would be certainly less bullish on such a possibility. I do recall many a season where come final days of Sept., mid Atlantic tropical waves would appear "stuck in mud", and a late E. Atlantic storm would often get sucked straight toward the Azores. The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season, is it El Nino? La Nina? Perhaps just Muy Loco?! Can't wait to read up on the "hind-cast" analysis on THIS year.......

Until then, I'm just gonna sit back and keep one eye out for Felix - just to be sure HE'S gone, and not coming back!