I thought this was very interesting from the 11:00 TD13 Discussion...

Global models forecast a weak mid-level
ridge to build eastward slowly from northern Mexico over the Gulf
of Mexico. This should eventually result in a southwestward to
westward motion of the tropical cyclone toward the coast of Mexico.
Although the consensus of the track guidance models indicates the
abovementioned motion...there are significant differences amongst
the individual models. It should be noted... however...that all of
the dynamical models keep the system offshore through 36 hours.

You notice how is says "weak" ridge and it looks like there may be some doubt over at the NHC about what will really happen with TD13 if you read between the lines.

Shawn