Looking at the radar and sat loops, it appears that the LLC is transitioning over to the east coast of Florida and the Key West LLC is falling apart. Bears watching as a jump of the LLC could increase the odds of something forming.

At the risk of saying something obvious, it seems there was a big ole switch flipped somewhere and now everything that wouldn't develop a month ago, is finding some sort of traction. (I'm not saying the season wasn't active before, but systems are developing in spite of relatively hostile conditions when they weren't before).

Karen is probably a hurricane now, still tracking WNW, and nothing is out there to indicate the NHC has the storm wrong. it's still worth keeping a slight eye on in case the weakness doesn't develop as well as predicted and a more westerly motion is generated.

TD13 seems to have weakened slightly, but is now starting to regroup and should make it to tropical storm force. No reason to think the storm won't head WSW in the long run.

The waves in the far east, can look as good as they want, but until they get some longitude, on them, I'm not worried about any development.