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Regarding Karen--Not sure if anyone has noticed this but since the 1800Z GFDL yesterday, models have been trending back towards the west with a disturbing hook to the left with the GFDL and the AVN alias (GFS) out about 96-120 hrs. Must be picking up less weakness in the ridge. Next few runs will be interesting.
I don't think anyone has said it publicly, but it appears more and more that the low pressure trough will bypass before Karen can get caught and turned north and out to sea... and we know what is follows a low pressure,..... High pressure/ridge to build in over the north atlantic... which, yep would mean a westward track until the next trough... WHICH is way too far out to forecast, timing, location... Karen will need watching... and will see what the upper level winds do to her in a few days, and if and how much she may get beaten...
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Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico