| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 01:35 AM |
|
Re: Discussion Excerpts
|
Here Here on the Blake descriptions! Some of the best out of NHC in the last discussions for both Karen & 13L, imho.
Does look like we might, sort of, have Karen getting the official bump now, regardless, and won't have to wait for the reanalysis to include the upgrade. To quote Blake for the benefit of others coming into this thread without a reference point, here is a partial quote from the 11PM Karen discussion:
Quote:
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2007
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS BEEN CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION
THIS EVENING AND HAS FOUND AN UNUSUAL WIND STRUCTURE WITH KAREN.
SFMR DATA SHOW THAT THE STORM HAS A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...WITH
ONE PEAK IN SURFACE WINDS ABOUT 105 NM AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND
ANOTHER ONE AT A MORE TYPICAL DISTANCE. IN ADDITION...DROPSONDE AND
SFMR DATA SUGGEST THAT THE FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER...LIKELY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 69 KT...WITH
A PEAK SURFACE VALUE OF 62 KT REPORTED TWICE...NOT QUITE HURRICANE
STRENGTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE FROM
EARLIER TODAY...KAREN WAS ALMOST CERTAINLY A HURRICANE THEN...AND
THIS LIKELIHOOD MAY BE REFLECTED IN THE FINAL BEST TRACK FOR THE
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
Karen-
NRL: "12LKAREN.65kts-995mb-128N-446W"
CIMSS: "Hurricane 12L"
In the end, however, as Blake states, Karen may not be able to attain hurricane strength again in the face of ongoing and upcoming shear.