VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132007
A. 27/18:19:00Z
B. 20 deg 29 min N
095 deg 43 min W
C. 850 mb 1449 m
D. 69 kt
E. 161 deg 11 nm
F. 220 deg 052 kt
G. 141 deg 020 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. NA C/ 1519 m
J. 23 C/ 1521 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF306 0513A CYCLONE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 64 KT SW QUAD 17:31:30 Z

I wonder if they'll upgrade it to a hurricane. It's trying really hard. Be a bit of a shocker to see it upgraded, particularly with the sheared look. Still Drifting south West and nothing to really push it a long faster.

Karen is trending to the left of Tropical Forecast point, again, not a surprise with the current state of the system. Still looks like a tropical Storm, vigorous LLC, and it may slip south of the worst shear.

Right now the models are starting to trend west with Karen, but as has been mentioned here many a time, wait for consistent model runs before taking any serious stock in them.

Right now the main concern is what Lorenzo will do to the Mexican coast, it may be a bit of a shocker to people if they hadn't been preparing for potentially rapidly developing storm (pressure appears to be dropping fairly rapidly, New Recon Ob found a pressure at 1000mb, a 2mb drop per hour the last few hours).