scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 28 2007 06:02 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Far East Atlantic, Lorenzo Makes Landfall

reason she went NNE is cause a passing weak shortwave went by. with her moving inline with the shear in the mid-levels she got into a brief less hospitable shear. She should resume a WNW direction. Difficult to see if she will survive the shear...she needs to get past 65W by Monday...shear will start to decrease and she might be a threat..but if she pulses and maintains some sort of organization..she might get pulled more N and then NE with the trough but not as a hurricane..just as a organized weak TS sheared system..(like now). Time will tell.

Area that is forecasted to form over the southern Bahamas will be simular to TD 13..more in the mid and upper levels and a weak LLC.....it could become a TS but simular to 13....hard to tell if anything at all.



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