PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
929 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 06 2007 - 12Z TUE OCT 09 2007

EARLY PRELIM DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE IN A REPETITIVE MODE..WITH THE FUTURE
LOOKING A LOT LIKE THE PAST.

THE MEAN RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC SHOULD DIRECT ANY
SYSTEMS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A FIRST WEAK SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW SHOULD
REACH OR APPROACH THE WRN GULF COAST BY EARLY DAY 3/FRI AND
DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A TRACK WITHIN THE RIGHT HALF OF
GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN VERIFICATION OF RECENT WEAK
SYSTEMS OVER THE GULF/WRN ATLC. MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINTS AT
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REACHING THE GULF BY THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1157 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

POSSIBLE LOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...
THE NAM DEVELOPS A FEATURE HERE WHICH WAS NOT SEEN ON ITS RUNS
FROM YESTERDAY. IT WAS FIRST NOTED ON THE NAM RUN FROM 00Z...FROM
WHICH THE CURRENT RUN HAS TRENDED SOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE DURING ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS
OF RUNS.

POSSIBLE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FRIDAY MORNING...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF
RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE