Looks like a few areas of interest for points in Florida and the Gulf of Mexico over the next week and a half. 90L doesn't look like it's going to do anything major. Situation and setup is quasi TD #10. If it follows the trends of TD #10, (formed from a wave, trough and ULL), look for a few rotating centers around a broader low tomorrow as things wind up a little. Could be anything from a broad low to a subtropical depression to even a mid-grade tropical storm by landfall somewhere between Galveston and Destin. Models want to say SW LA, but we saw that with TD #10, and they were all too far south pulling #10 west. It eventually got to Texas, but it rode up on 33/34N.

90L appears to be setting the table for a much larger threat the following week. 18z GFS puts landfalls a fairly large system inland after landfall between Mobile and PCB at 216 hours +/-. That's 9 days from lunchtime, or +/- Thursday of next week. As most of you probably know, many of the models have been hinting that the secondary area (east of Florida) would also close off and possibly turn into something far more substantial than what 90L could likely get to. It's still too far out to know. We should have some indication by the weekend if we're going to be facing a real threat next week. What the 18z GFS does is bring it down toward Cuba and over to the Yucatan then fades it up to the Panhandle. Based soley on the 18z GFS, I think anything prior developed would likely be weakening at landfall rather than strengthening as we've seen this year in the Western Gulf. This does not in any way mean that I believe we'll have a weakening, landfalling storm in the NE Gulf next Thursday and is solely based on the model and potential heat content from Jeff Master's first half of October update released today or yesterday.

*edit* link to the 216 hour 18z GFS (subject of the above)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_216.shtml

Steve