TCFA hoisted at 0300Z has some interesting things to say from NRL's perspective:

2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 125NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS, FLORIDA HAS AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1005MB, WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
THAT EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND ENCOUNTERS WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (82F/28C) AND MORE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. (LINK)

It would appear that 1005mb is a good estimate, for now. Given the probability of further deepening over the next 24-36 hours or so it is pretty hard to argue against at least a subtropical storm by Friday morning on the outside, and it does seem reasonable to assume that given enough time over the 28c waters a more tropical core will start to take shape.

Looking east for the next "big thing" as so many have been discussing and so many models have been hinting at, the trof and associated convection just east of the Bahamas continues to bubble, and in no small way. Deep convection to be sure. But nothing really taking at the surface, yet. I actually have my eyes a little glued on little old Melissa out near 20N 45W. While likely not a closed surface circulation earlier, it could be tonight, considering how well a blowup of deep convection has persisted in the eastern semicircle for many hours now. Would not surprise me to see some mention of this, at the very least, by 11AM if this trend continues.