we've got three good disturbances that could all potentially be noel. still have the ghosts of two tropical storms poking around east of the islands, too.
90L is trying to do its best impression of tropical depression 10. finally blowing some convection today.. it's got a well defined center but has been running around bare, even over that loaded central gulf water. all it takes is a good convective burst to mix those winds down... buoys out there have been reporting 25-30kt stuff on and off all day. then again, it might just scurry its way up to the louisiana coast and ditch ashore before it can develop. anybody's guess.
91L is that itcz feature under the ridge, which was actually a fairly well defined little circulation before all the convection showed up, that is slowly developing. the nhc ignored it for a couple days prior, but it's slowly getting its act together. none of the models like it, which is befuddling. it's going to develop. should do that quite nicely. run into shear and maybe recurve, maybe fight its way up under the big east coast ridge.
92L is trying to develop a center under the huge clockwise upper dome that is going to make an excellent vent once it gets together. it may be able to find ways to spit out surface vortices and try to develop where the developing isn't good.. but if it gets going, look out. if the globals are right it goes through the straits of florida and camps near the yucatan into next week. if they're wrong (and it develops sooner) it could come further north at florida. this thing is trouble all around if it gets going.
the remains of melissa keep noisily insisting they are there. karen's ghost is still floating near the virgin islands. something from either (or 91L if it gets up there) ought to tuck under the ridge behind 92L and come west as well. it will have to contend with the upper trough trying to form there, but could come riding west in force if the trough fractures and sends an upper low sw. in any case something ought to act up there... whether it can do anything is another issue.
that's enough to mind. we ought to dig deeper into the alphabet before the week is over. the flurry of weaklings in september got us well along.
HF 2252z03october