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Posted from wunderground's Dr. Jeff Masters: "Disturbance 92L east of the Bahamas An area of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough of low pressure (92L) near 22.4N 73W, in the southwestern Bahama Islands, has diminished. Wind shear of 20-30 knots has blown away nearly all of the heavy thunderstorm activity near the surface low pressure system, which has now reformed about 200 miles to the south of where it was last night. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed some westerly surface winds over the southern Bahamas, which would aid in the formation of a new surface circulation under the heavy thunderstorms there. However, wind shear is still 20-25 knots today, and I don't expect any development until 92L can move into the Western Caribbean where wind shear is lower. This may occur Sunday. Another possibility is that a surface circulation just offshore of the Florida Keys, visible as a swirl of low clouds on this morning's visible satellite loop, could begin to develop. The computer models still indicate the possibility of a tropical storm forming in the Western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico 2-7 days from now, but are much less insistent upon it. Upper air conditions are expected to be very favorable for tropical storm formation over the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the next seven days, but nothing will form if we don't get a disturbance with some spin to it entering the region. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on call to investigate the Western Caribbean on Sunday, if necessary." |