I'm certainly an amateur observer but this morning there's a cyclonic swirl developing at the north end of the Bahamas mess, around 23N 68W. You can see it at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200792_sat.html (click on Animate) and even better in the more real-time http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html at lower-right. Really I don't see a lot of shear affecting it at this point. But I'm not sure it's lower-level--have to admit I haven't figured out how to tell an ULL from a LLC.
This has been tagged "The Season with No Reason," and that's a good one. An alternate label might be "The Year of Shear Luck." I haven't see any explanation yet for why all these strong westerly shear winds in a moderate La Nina year. But living on the Indian River in Melbourne it's been great to see!
|