cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 11 2007 05:39 PM
Re: For October Its Busy Out There

New invest up. There exists a drawn out potpourri of convection associated with surface to mid-level troffiness in the western Atlantic into the Caribbean, with numerous surface to mid level swirls, some more pronounced than others, with x94L having been the most prominent. NRL is now tracking 96L in the central Atlantic, around 30N 53W. This feature was already analyzed by TPC as a 1011 mb low center Wednesday. Movement is generally east this morning. NRL estimates winds at 25 knots, which both the former pressure estimate and max sustained wind may be conservative, based on ship reports which suggest pressures have been down around 1007-1009 and max winds closer to 30 knots. This system is very nearly, if not already, a depression, although shear has been an inhibiting factor.

NHC discusses it in the 10:30 TWO:
1. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE
IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.


The non-tropical low which was rather quickly acquiring some tropical characteristics in the far eastern Atlantic I mentioned yesterday has remained generally symmetrical, cold-cored, and has given up much of its convection which existed Wednesday. It was already being tracked as an Invest by SSD, although NHC had not assigned it a number for NRL. Nothing much doing there so far today.



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