ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD (In knots)
SHIP S 1800 29.10 -50.50 60 180 190 35.0

Ship report from 1800Z within miles of the coc was reporting sustained winds out of the south at 40 mph. Just a very slight increase in organization would probably force NHCs hand at naming 15 in real-time. The window for such further intensification is forecast to close as shear turns around and starts to beat on 15 from the north, and by default, if for no other reason, substantially increases in intensity as the cyclone travels along a forecast northeasterly heading. However, should 15 continue to proceed in a more due easterly direction the net shear over the system could be less, and 15 has already shown a propensity to fend off shear quite well, beating out numerous model runs which anticipated decoupling by now.

As for the Caribbean, we probably need to see something really start turning at the surface before NHC takes more notice. The only notable turning at the surface is still well inland (94L). For now, it's an impressive trof, with occasional transient lows.