If it weren't for all the dry air and nearby high shear I would say 99L is on the West GOM Fast Track to pull it off. But, unlike last month, times have changed. Still, looking at the post-eclipse loops tonight, particularly the IR2, it is hard not to argue that 99 has been drawn north and is attempting to recenter about a new plot near 22.5N 93.5W, but this does not appear to be firmly rooted in the surface at this time.

Should 99 become a TC before long, as it might not have much time before it gets burried in its own new plot under the mounds of shear and dry air, it could draw away some of that rich fetch of moisture heading into the southeast. Ultimately, more and more models that have locked on to it have moved it northeasterly, anyway, and hopefully this brings more welcome rains to the region, regardless.

In the mean time, what a nice slug of deep tropical thunderstorms just off the coast in the northeastern GOM!