cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Oct 19 2007 05:09 PM
Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October

In addition to 2007 continuing the '06 tradition of shear, albeit to a lesser extent, I suspect 2007 has had perhaps a somewhat higher than usual number of systems form very close to land, thereby limiting their development (certainly both Humberto and Lorenzo were racing full speed towards a Charley-esque status, but that they came inland too soon having formed so close to shore prevent as much). And perhaps yet another interesting feature of 2007-to-date has been a larger percentage of higher-latitude systems, that as such more rapidly entered an unfavorable shear zone.

Perhaps what I found to be the most interesting landfall of the season-to-date was TS Erin. What an amazing reformation that occurred with her once well-inland! "Landcane."

Looking ahead as we are, it seems likely to get another name or two before the season is up, but it's darn hard to pick out a favorite area going into the remainder of the month. Perhaps one of the waves traversing the central Atlantic right now pulls together a bit better over the weekend. Some intermittent model support for growing something along the tail end of the cold front now draped SW-NE across the GOM. Looks possible. Perhaps another high-lat hybrid something or other. The big picture right now across the CONUS and into the western Atlantic looks a lot more like mid-late November, however.



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