vpbob21
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 22 2007 06:30 PM
Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October

From today's Extended Forecast Discussion ...

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
BY THIS WEEKEND...A FRONTAL DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST COMBINE WITH DIVERGENCE
ALOFT TO LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
CANADIAN FORMS VARIOUS TROPICAL LOWS NEAR THE WEST INDIES ON ITS
00Z AND 12Z RUN...WHILE THE ECMWF FORMS A SYSTEM DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS FORMS
GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK BULLS EYES WHICH MOVE ALONG THE GREATER
ANTILLES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE LATEST RUN FROM THE ROUNDY TROPICAL
CYCLONE PROBABILITY WEBSITE INDICATES A GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER COORDINATION WITH TPC...FORM
THE LOW BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING IT WEST.


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