cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Oct 23 2007 05:34 PM
Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October

So far today, the only feature I am able to discern as having any chance at any very near-term development is the surface low associated with the non-tropical low over the central Atlantic. The surface feature is located near 30.5N 36W. Ship reports suggest maximum sustained winds may now be in the 30 knot range, and pressure down to perhaps 1009-1010mb. A few showers are firing off in the coc. There is a hint of perhaps becoming a touch low-level warm core symmetrical. I gander that this may be something that gets an Invest tag.

Rest of the features feel like wave monger material, so far. The Roundy experimental tropical cyclone formation probability product vpbob cites above is certainly bullish, although almost backwards-looking now. Nonetheless, two very convective waves (interaction with ULLs) have persisted for a good while now. The bottom of the cold front cutting across Mexico and entering the east Pac has shown a few hints of building on some preexisting cyclonic flow down there. Might be interesting if it breaks off and festers a while. In the meantime, the associated Tehuantepecer is blowing hour after hour easily over 35 knots from the ocean, and it wouldn't be surprising to find sustained wind of over 45 knots inland.



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