allan
(Weather Master)
Thu Oct 25 2007 01:18 PM
Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October

Well the low looks ok this morning but is starting to move into 20-30 knots of wind shear.. I don't see this developing unitl or IF it moves in the general "hot spot" for storms this time of year. It's obvious by looking at the troical cyclone heat potential is shear is low, this is gonna get going pretty good when it reaches there. The only models developing this storm now are the NOGAPS and CMC. I couldn't find the 00z UKMET. However, the NHC is watching this closely, especially when they have INVEST on a floater
So I checked the tropical corner on Frank Straits blog and I absolutely agree, if it doesn't move southwest soon, it will get ripped apart AKA Chris 2006 lol. It still has this afternoon before it reaches that high wind shear so we'll see what happens with that.
The EURO model rapidly forms a hurricane and hits South Florida in 250 hours from now.. again time will tell.. but pretty scary to note that. Usually the EURO is on board with a storm, things get pretty serious.

Oh and last to point 90L has FINALLY been added for the Puerto Rico low, and i'd say it's about time!



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