cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 25 2007 10:11 AM
Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October

90L doesn't look half-bad. They could have tagged this one yesterday. It's formed on the tail end of a frontal feature associated with the giant non-tropical low centered out over the central Atlantic. Shear over 90L isn't horrific at this time, although certainly not helping it any. I wouldn't pay any attention to tropical cyclone heat potential for any system that is in an environment barely supportive of tropical cyclogenesis, as it is. In fact, the atmosphere is likely to be a far, far greater determinant of this system's true potential than the TCHP (assuming 90l can actually pop in the first place). Conventional satellite, buoy and ship reports suggest it could be a fighter.

Other areas of interest include the remains of a wave in the central Caribbean and/or the southern portion of the strong cold front that is going stationary this morning. Some models still want to create a tc down in there over the next 4-7 days, which doesn't look impossible. There's also the rest of the above-mentioned very large non-tropical low out in the central Atlantic, without any model support to speak of, but which could slowly acquire some subtropical characteristics as it meanders over subtropical to marginally tropical waters out there somewhere in the vicinity of 25N 45W +/- five or ten in any direction.



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