I'm thinking a lot of the very deep convective flareups that we have been watching in the eastern semicircle could start to wane should the ULL just a hair to its west begin really weakening and/or pulling away. Then we may start to see less "pockets" of very deep, really rather unorganized convection, and more true banding all the way around. Still always the possibility of the LLC jumping into the deeper bursts, but that looks somewhat unlikely considering how well-maintained the LLC has been all week, and how there are some hints of incipient banding wrapping all the way around it now.

As NHC states, both the track and intensity forecasts are much less certain than usual with 16. I suspect that once data starts coming in from recon and gets fed into the models a clearer picture starts to show up. Still, it is possible that even with the data the sorta kinda wild cards of island (land) interaction, high ocean heat content in the nw caribbean, upper-level low to its west, etc. bust up any forecast that gets made Sunday night, too.