I can't make heads or tails out of Noel's current position based on the IR imagery.. all channels and enhancements aren't telling at this time. Reading the 11PM Advisory, NHC is having the same trouble. What we all need is some solid data coming back in from recon, and this is currently underway. Hopefully a timely microwave pass or two will assist tremendously, as well.

If I was guessing.. based on IR and the very few sparse ground reports that are available there... Noel is either pulling due north and going inland over DR/Haiti.. and/or perhaps re-centering, or attempting to reform, a new LLC to the SE of the former position. (In other words, one or the other or even both could be happening!) All I can say is that if the real pros are having about as much trouble as this tonight, I can't imagine the models are using the best starting points for their runs, either.

What has been made somewhat clear tonight, is we probably don't have to worry about another TC forming in the near future anywhere near Noel to complicate things further (there have been attempts to grow something out of the disturbance down around Panama, as well as out of the well-formed mid-level low in the west-northwest Caribbean.)