This is a highly unfortunate scene for the Island of Hispanola.

At this point, it is pretty apparent that the mid level center is seperating/de-coupling from Noel and moving Northward. The heavy rains will cuase very devestating mudslides in that island region and I sincerely pray for the best there.

As for the future of Noel, I expect the decouple to continue considering the high cloud tops that already exist, the uplifting support from the mountains of the D.R. and Haiti, and the current shear profile. That is the big news for now...

Later on...According to the shortwave loops, I would pinpoint the "centroid" of the circulation envelope at the surface as a location that is south of the passage between Jamaica and Haiti. As the ULL spins down further and shear decreases...Old mid level low Noelwill head nrth and Fade away, butthe surface structure will probably remain in the carribean based on what I am seeing tonight. If so...unfortunately...there will be more rains in Hispaola and the final chapter on Noel has not been written....

Currently, the main convection is impressive and it is very lethal...but regretably, it is not all that Noel may have to offer...Stay tuned!

Shortwave Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html