Don't think we should over analyze this...I think NHC has it right. The latest images indicate the center is re-forming NNW of and just off the coast of Haiti. There is some new convection there...movement still seems to be to the North.
I have no handle at all on the forecast track of this system...I see no reason why it won't begin more westward because the ULL is forecast to weaken and the Sub ATL ridge will be its only influence. Although a short wave trough is foresast for Wed-Thursday the one now dropping into the upper Midwest doesn't seem deep enough to influence the SE ATL coast...so one must be further up stream.
EDS