weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Oct 30 2007 02:44 AM
Re: Noel Northwest of Hati, Moving Toward Bahamas

Any fellow "weather-heads" have any recent pressure readings from out in the southern or central Bahamas?

As I sit here anticipating the 11:00pm Discussion, and while watching my 135th looping of every different sat. resolution, I am noticing how for the first time this system is wrapping convection farther around the western quadrant than earlier today or yesterday. Is this partially due to lessening shear, perhaps. Also, inflow on Noel's eastern semicircle is being interupted by the very mountaineous Eastern Cuba landscape, thus less moisture and convection collecting perhaps on its eastern side. On the "motion" issue......, well I am certainly not seeing a more northerly component, and if anything a 280-290 degree motion. Hard to say of course given what we have to look at, but my guess is that the current center is smack right under the smaller ball of convection, just north of Cuba. Overall consolodation has been fairly impressive.

While not ready to make any outright prediciton, looking at the way the GFS has been trending, and looking at the 18z 500mb level winds, I just don't see enough energy droping south to influence a sharp northeast turn, as predicted by nearly all dynamic models. If upcoming mid and upper air were to verify this, than I can see a westward adjustment in about 15 minutes.

Two difficult choices I may have to make by tomm. eve. One, do I put up hurricane shutters tomm. eve., and two....., do I change my Halloween Costume to that of a "Blowin' Tumbleweek" ( perhaps more apprapoe than Elvis ).

(Forecast Lounge type comments were removed.)



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