The Season with No reason continues...

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1251 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

VALID OCT 30/0000 UTC THRU NOV 02/1200 UTC

MODEL INITIALIZATION...

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST...

ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SHORT TERM FORECASTS.

MODEL TRENDS...

...TROPICAL STORM NOEL...
THE NAM IS STILL HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TO THE RIGHT WITH THE TRACK OF NOEL EARLY IN THE FORECAST... THEN FASTER AND TO THE LEFT ONCE IT RECURVES.

...SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DAYS 2 AND 3...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE WAVE. THE GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER AND SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL VORTICITY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...

...TROPICAL STORM NOEL...
THE NAM IS STILL HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS TRACK IS CLOSE TO TPC GUIDANCE THROUGH 12Z/01 THURSDAY... THEN ACCELERATES NOEL ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK A FULL DAY
FASTER.

...SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DAYS 2 AND 3...
THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AND LESS ORGANIZED THAN THE NAM WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE SUPPORT OF BOTH THE HIGHLY RESOLVED 12Z/29 ECMWF AND THE 00Z/30 GEM REGIONAL MODELS... WILL RECOMMEND A
SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE NAM WITH THE WAVE.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html