Not an expert by any stretch of the imagination, but avid watcher. Answering your question-I would say slim to none on a hurricane in S FL. Models are exteremly accurate with a storm staying withinin the cone of error out 3 days, forget about the OFCl track as evidenced by Charley at the last minute. But even Charley was within the cone. I would say if you are not in the three day cone you are out of harms way.